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Is solar still worth it now that load shedding has eased?

By Kagiso Mahlangu, The Bill Detective · 26 October 2026 · 7 min read

The question has changed. Two years ago people bought solar to keep the lights on. As of 26 October 2026, Eskom says South Africa has gone more than 500 days without load shedding, so the old reason has mostly gone.

The new reason is the price. Electricity keeps getting more expensive every year, and the way you're charged for it is changing in ways that matter for solar. Our short answer: solar still pays for many freestanding homes, but the margin is thinner than the sales pitch suggests, and in Tshwane a municipal fixed charge can wipe out much of the saving on a small system. Here's the evidence, then how to check your own case.

Where load shedding stands

• On 16 October 2026, Eskom reported 518 consecutive days without load shedding, counting from 16 May 2025, and an energy availability factor of 68.2% for the financial year to date, its best in six years (Eskom, 16 Oct 2026).
• Eskom also said it had 5,695 MW of surplus capacity available.
• Load reduction hasn't gone. That's the separate practice of cutting power to specific areas, usually where networks are overloaded. Eskom says 193,556 customers were still affected, in selected parts of Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, with a target to eliminate it by March 2027.
• Eskom said its summer outlook would be announced "in the coming weeks" in an October 2026 update. We'll update this post when it's out.

So outages are no longer the main argument, unless you're in a load-reduction area or you can't afford any downtime, say if you work from home.

The price keeps going up

These are approved figures, not forecasts:

Sources: NERSA, March 2026; City of Tshwane; NERSA ERTSA consultation paper for 2027/28.

On the 2027/28 figure: NERSA's revised revenue decision of 7 February 2026 works out to an average 8.83% increase. Eskom's tariff application to implement it was out for public comment until 2 October 2026, with a public hearing on 8 October and the regulator's decision scheduled for 26 November 2026. Treat 8.83% as the expected figure until then.

Every unit your panels make and you use yourself is a unit you don't buy at these rising prices. That's the core of the case for solar now.

The catch: fixed charges are growing

Solar can only cut the part of your bill that depends on how many units you use. Anything charged as a flat monthly amount stays, sun or no sun. And fixed charges are getting bigger.

Eskom direct customers. Under NERSA's approved Retail Tariff Plan, Eskom is phasing in fixed charges. For the Homepower and Homeflex residential tariffs, the fixed share of the service and administration charge rose from 33.33% to 66.66% in 2026/27, with energy rates trimmed to compensate. The fixed share of the Generation Capacity Charge went from 20% to 30%, and the part still recovered through the energy charge is excluded from the credit you get for exporting under net billing (Eskom tariff schedule for FY2027; Eskom 2026/27 tariff page). Eskom's 2027/28 application proposes further changes to the Homepower and Homeflex fixed service charges.

What that does to the maths: in an example from Engineering News (29 September 2026), if 70% of a bill is for units and 30% is fixed, a system that cuts unit use by 30% only cuts the total bill by about 21%.

City of Tshwane. Here it's different. Tshwane's ordinary domestic tariff has no fixed monthly charge; you pay 324.12c to 445.51c a unit excluding VAT on a stepped scale. But once you register a grid-connected solar system, the City's approved 2026/27 tariff adds a fixed charge of R324.00 a month excluding VAT (R372.60 including VAT) per metering point, plus a two-way meter, and credits exported power at just 94.13c a unit (NERSA reasons for decision on Tshwane; Podium Energy summary of the gazetted tariff).

That's R4,471 a year before your panels have saved you a cent.

What it means for payback in Pretoria

GridPulse publishes a payback estimate for every municipality, using a conservative model: 3 kW of panels, no battery, R55,000 installed, a three-person home using about 550 kWh a month. For Tshwane it estimates a first-year saving of R8,590 and a payback of 6.5 years, against a typical 7.5 years across the municipalities it covers (Johannesburg also comes out at 7.5).

But GridPulse says plainly that its model leaves out "municipal rules for homes with solar". So here's our adjustment, as an illustration:

• GridPulse's first-year saving for Tshwane: R8,590
• Less the City's fixed charge for a registered solar home: R4,471
• Net saving: about R4,119 a year
• Payback on R55,000: about 13.4 years, roughly double the headline figure

That's the kind of number a sales brochure leaves out. It doesn't mean solar never works in Tshwane. It means small, panels-only systems in low-usage homes are the weakest case, because a flat R372.60 a month eats a big share of a small saving. Bigger households that use more power, especially in the most expensive tariff steps, recover the fixed charge much more easily. In our 5 kW cost guide we worked through an example of a 900 kWh-a-month Pretoria home where the payback came out at roughly 5.7 to 9.5 years, depending on the installed price.

When solar is still worth it

Based on the numbers above, solar makes the most sense when:

• Your usage is high. In Tshwane, units above 650 kWh a month cost 445.51c excluding VAT, so every one of those you replace is worth the most.
• You use power while the sun is up. Pool pumps, geysers on timers, home offices and daytime cooking all use solar directly instead of exporting it at 94.13c.
• You plan to stay put. Payback is measured in years, not months.
• Your roof works. North-facing and unshaded is ideal.
• Outages still cost you. If you're in a load-reduction area or work from home, a battery's backup value is real, even if it's hard to put a rand figure on.

When it probably isn't, or not yet

• Your bill is small. Energy Bee, which sells solar, says to hold off if your bill is under about R800 a month. In Tshwane, a R372.60 monthly charge against a small saving makes that even more important.
• You rent or may move soon.
• Your roof is heavily shaded or can't carry panels.
• You'd be paying for a big battery purely for outages that aren't happening. For bill-cutting alone, more panels and a smaller battery usually beat a big battery.

How to check your own case in 15 minutes

1. Find your real usage. Twelve months of kWh from your account or prepaid history.
2. Find your real tariff. Use your municipality's 2026/27 rates, not the average price on a sales sheet. For Tshwane, the steps are on the City's tariff notice.
3. Estimate the units you'll replace, not the units the panels make. Only power you use yourself saves you the full tariff.
4. Subtract any solar fixed charge from the monthly saving. In Tshwane that's R372.60 including VAT if you register and stay connected.
5. Divide the installed price by the yearly net saving. That's your simple payback. Under about seven years is generally attractive. Over twelve deserves a hard second look.
6. Get three itemised quotes, and ask each installer to show their savings maths with the fixed charge included.

The verdict

Load shedding was a blunt, emotional reason to buy solar. What's left is a spreadsheet decision. With prices up 8.76% to 9.01% this year and about 8.83% expected next year, solar still pays for plenty of South African homes. But it's no longer automatic. Fixed charges are rising, and in Tshwane registering a grid-connected system comes with a monthly bill of its own. Do the sum for your house, not the average house.

Sources

All checked on 26 October 2026.

• Eskom, 518 days without load shedding, 16 October 2026.
• Eskom, More than 500 days without load shedding, 2 October 2026.
• NERSA, Eskom retail tariffs approved for 2026/27, March 2026.
• NERSA, ERTSA consultation paper for 2027/28, September 2026.
• Eskom, 2026/2027 tariff increase and schedule of standard prices for FY2027.
• Engineering News, Solar considerations becoming more nuanced, 29 September 2026.
• City of Tshwane, 2026/27 tariff increases.
• NERSA, Reasons for decision: City of Tshwane tariffs 2026/27.
• Podium Energy, Tshwane electricity rates 2026/27.
• GridPulse, Rooftop solar payback by municipality.
• Energy Bee, Is solar worth it with no load shedding?

Kagiso Mahlangu is the pen name of The Bill Detective's editorial team. Figures come from the published sources linked above and were checked on the date shown; tariffs and prices change, so confirm with your municipality and get written quotes. Example scenarios are illustrations, not real customers. If you ask for quotes through this site we may be paid a referral fee by the installer, at no cost to you.